The Russian Paradox

The Tsars of imperial Russia ruled with an iron hand, and so did the politburo of Soviet Russia, leading to an imbedded and inbred Russian culture of strong man rule, for centuries, that has lasted to this day, despite the fall of the soviet union. This culture of strong man rule opposes liberalized political movements that would otherwise make modern Russians become true democrats and capitalists. Just because some wall fell down in a dominated foreign country, don’t mean that Russian culture will change any time soon. Most Russians have no clue what economic capitalism and political democracy are really all about, both of which, taking individual foresight and energy for successful participation, something missing in Tsarist or Soviet Russia. President Bush can complain all he wants about media controls, rigged elections, and dead reporters, but it wont make a difference to most Russians. They primarily could care less about real personal freedom, and will readily coward under centralized rule from Moscow, at least until the 45-70 years of age folks die off.

PM Putin, the real power in Russia, however, has a big problem. Sure, he can dictate election results, send out bombers on missions, and pound his chest on fishing trips, to arouse Russian patriotism and bring back memories of the sputnik days of glory, but what he can not do, is turn back the hands of time. Possessing a real zeal for centralized dictatorial rule, under the guise of a democracy, he is cornered in his mother land, without routes of power expansions to which he was indoctrinated many years ago under and for the KGB. Just look at a globe. The two possible areas of Russian expansion, have already been attempted, one is under the arctic ice, and the next is in the caucuses, both of which, in view of the expansive nature of the soviet empire, are but mere tokens of intent, but more importantly, insightful exposures of the nature and culture of his Russian population, which, in large measure at the grass roots, supported the move into Georgia.

This day, NATO chief Scheffer flew into Tbilisi Georgia with thumbs up, indicating that NATO admission is a done deal, something Russia opposes, yet, it was Russia, that is Putin, who actually cemented this with the Russian drive toward the BTC oil pipeline in central Georgia, a planed geo-political maneuver by Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, who sent a raiding party into a break away province, to successfully incite, infuriate, and draw in a Russian response, playing and preying upon Russian culture, to thereby raise support in Western Europe for Georgian admission to NATO, and, with Putin over-playing his hand by moving Russian tanks beyond that break away province to the pipeline, and thereby played right into Saakashivili's gambit, and as such, Putin was played for a fool, with Saakashivili playing upon Russian culture and desires. The gambit worked, as Russia is now withdrawing under western political pressure and under the rebuke to requested support for independence in the break away provinces from Eurasian partners, most notably China, having provincial problems itself. Putin was played a fool, he was condemned by Europe, he cemented Georgian NATO admission, while obtaining a rebuke from his Eurasian friends. Strike three, and he is out of Georgia, as he is now moving back his tanks back into Russia. But did he or his Russians learn anything? Probably not, its cultural with them, and they don’t even know it, being played the fool.

It is the blind ambition of a tyrant, the embedded and inbred strong man culture, and a strong desire to regain the Yuri Gagarin glory of the old soviet union, that has led, by any fair analysis, to an embarrassment for Putin and Russia in Georgia. The Russian paradox exists, as they really want a strong-man Tsar to lead them back to the old glory days, but those days are long gone, as the map has been redrawn, as Poland positions NATO defense missiles within range of Russian air space. As both the Arctic, and now Georgia, the only possible avenues of expansion, have been played out, there is no place else for Russian expansion, in a global dead end. The war games with Venezuela may project some Russian influence, but mere influence is a far cry from the occupational dominance of eastern Europe by the Soviets. Just let Hugo and Putin have some fun fishing together for a photo shoot, and let the world draw their own conclusions.

In other aspects, the Russian central bank has been rapidly increasing its FOREX reserves, the energy complex is expanding, as does its gold hoard, while the Russian economy has expanded. But Russia still suffers from a deteriorating infrastructure, a literally dying population, and an economy that ranks Russia in the 2nd, if not 3rd, world economies. For all that glory seeking, Russia does not have the muscle, nor could that muscle be modernly used, as the days of massive tank armies of the 20th century, rolling through Europe unopposed are long gone, and hence, so is the traditional soviet style expansion methodology. Putin and Russia need to rethink their strategy for prospective gains in the 21st century.

As the Russian Bear has been, in large measure, geopolitically isolated to its home turf, and thereby caged in large measure, the strong-man culture and desires for the heady days of soviet domination are presently holding back Russia and the Russians from much more prosperous times and equal acceptance among all nations. Instead of trying to resurrect a defunked empire and a debunked economic system, the Russians should look inward and then forward, to rebuild their infrastructure, to improve medical care to stop the dying population, to provide child supports to increase the birth rate, to focus on new manufacturing capabilities, to increase political debate on TV, to institute free and fair elections, but most importantly, to join WTO and NATO and G8 in mutually cooperative, and not opposing, ways, and really join the global community, rather than to uselessly attempt to polarize the world for self gain under conventional soviet tactics, but, until the Russian population divorces itself from its indigenous strong man culture and heavy socialistic reliance upon centralized control, and start encouraging individualism, free expression, self-reliance, and international cooperation in earnest, Russia is doomed to backwardization, arctic field trips and Georgian picnics, under Putin, for the foreseeable future.

Derrick