The Dollar and War will be Respectively Replaced by Gold and Trade, 5/13/06

"It cost about 75 cents to kill a man in Ceasar's time. The price rose to about $3,000 per man during the Napoleonic wars; to $5,000 in the American Civil War; and then to $21,000 per man in World War I. Estimates for the future wars indicate that it may cost the warring countries not less than $50,000 for each man killed." Senator Homer T. Bone. I was particularly intrigued by this quote from Senator Homer T. Bone, that the cost per death in war has increased. May I take that analysis a step further? Conclusion: He does not tell the whole story.

In the good old days, say, pre 1500s, when tribal kingdoms engaged in war, they took no prisoners, except women as concubines and slaves, and hence, the causality rate for the loser was 100%, the victor's rate was not much less, and one-on-one battles usually meant equal rates of causalities. Then came the middle ages, and chivalry, and if a besieged defender surrendered early, the garrison was spared with honor, otherwise the black flag. Then came the guns, but still, the ratios of deaths were even, with casualty rates of say 20%. Then came long range rifles and smoothbores, with many battles having 10-15% casualty rates, and garrisons were not slaughtered, but imprisoned or even exchanged or paroled. In the WWI and WWII the casualty rates continued to drop as a percentage to those engaged. In Korea and Vietnam, the technology differences became apparent, with kill ratios of 5:1 to 10:1 or more in many battles, but US death rates per battles were down to less than 5% for the stand up fight. The cold war provided a dry spell, but then emerge Gulf I and Gulf II, with advanced technology.

The military technology is exponentiating, and it seems that the bend in the curve seems to have occurred in the mid 1900s. Each day, our military technology advances and increases our differential effectiveness over our opponents who have like curves, but delayed in time, until we have reached a point these days, that in a stand up fight, we have less than 1% casualty rates. This is astounding! Of the 200K troops that have been cycled through mid-middle east, the casualty rate is about 1%. Along side these trends is the endless printing of fiat paper money to fund these military expenditures.

So, it seems that, over the last two millennia, the costs per death has increased, as the casualty rate has decreased, making a relative, net sum zero, in the cost of war, generally. War, in terms of the US perspective, has become more expensive but more safe for the US fighting man/woman, which supports the contention that the administration is providing fighting Joe with the best chances he ever had of surviving a battle or a war. Our armies and navies are all volunteer, and this should not change in the foreseeable future. The fighting Joe knows he has the best chances in history to survive. Along side this trend, is the trend toward fewer and less deadly wars, in terms of US battle casualties, but more expensive, the quid pro quo.

The cost of war will change in kind. The proclaimed demise of the almighty dollar, projected to start in mid summer 2006, is already upon us, and the dollar is expected to collapse around 2010-11. As trade wars become more popular over military wars, governments will be more keen to keep cheating banks from printing fiat money and from hiding state sponsored subsidies, and will seek to spend their military dollars on trade war productivity rather than unnecessary military hardware and personnel. The fights will be in trade wars, that will necessarily required a monetary standard of money that all can unequivocally agree upon as to value. Gold and Silver are the only real alternatives. Hence, as military war become disfavored over monetary trade war, additional pressures will come upon and to the end of fiat paper money, with the resulting use of paper money certificates that are backed up by Gold and Silver in bank and corporate vaults. Gold and Silver mines will be the real banks of mid 21st century. By 2025, there will be a boom in Gold and Silver prices and mining stock values the world has never seen in 5000 years of mining precious metals, which boom will make $20,000/oz Gold and $1,000/oz Silver seem a great bargain.

So, lets now do something positive, and project these concepts into this century. There will be fewer wars, fewer battle casualties, but it will cost allot more to wage or be prepared for war, until such time, that globalization become substantially complete (with the N. Korean or Iranian resolutions for examples) and cements the functional geo-economical-political rules sets that render military expenditures largely unnecessary for dispute resolutions. The inevitable globalization and confluence will in time render military expenditures largely unnecessary as world powers seek domination by trade and not by guns, as one does not wage war on one's customers, and all will seek to avoid perturbation shocks, such as 9/11. Contrary to popular belief, the Russians and Chinese have the most to loose in an Iranian war, and will seek to get Tehran to compromise with the "Great Satin" on the nuke issue.

The later half of this century will wage war, not by guns, but by trade, and the major issues then will be fair free trade war which in fact has begun in earnest, as well as over population, and environmental issues and resolutions. I wont be around to enjoy the fruits of 5000 years of cultural evolution of man-kind, in this regard of the inevitable global confluence, but it seems, that we as a specie are moving to a better plane of intercourse. With endless fiat money printing, paper currency will become history as well to prevent cheating banks from destroying the value of hard earned savings and wealth in order to sustain the trade wars. The world banks' and governments' only solution to fair trade, is the necessary use of a standard medium, Gold and Silver. As governments learn that expenditures of real money on military hardware and personnel diminishes their returns and limits their abilities to invest in trade productivity in trade wars, expenditures will shift away from war materials and fiat money to trade capital assets and real money for improved global trade competition. The ultimate projection is that the Dollar and War are completely replaced by Gold and Trade, say by 2025!