Walking Liberty is Real Money.

The highly respected and much followed analyst Peter Grandich, (one of my personal favorites) has recently penned a controversial letter entitled "Man Your Battle Stations", (http:// news.goldseek.com/ Grandich /1192464000.php). Mr. Grandich does an excellent job of highlighting geopolitical troubles about the world, and relates these troubles as bullish for bullion, rightly so, while indicating that geopolitical time bombs are ready to go off. In large measure, Grandich's global glass is less than half full. Mr. Grandich stated that "The middle east, soon to be front and center", but it already was. So what is new? It is not that it will be front and center, but rather, what are the long term directions, that should concern us all.

While Russian President Putin speaks in terms of peaceful Iranian nuke use, he does not press compliant sanctions, indicating, President Putin likes a little confliction in the oil fields, naturally so, as Russia builds an energy empire rivaling OPEC. The Russian double dutch seems clear, push up the price of oil. Unless you first recognize a problem, a militant nuke Iran, you can not seek a resolution. World focus upon the Iranian nukes was a first good step toward resolution, sanctions is another, war if necessary will be another, but the trick is to keep the pressure on so that something will crack. In terms of significance, Iran is the last significant nut to crack in global militancy, state sponsored terrorism, or naked aggression, as the world's globalization confluence is now being perfected. While Iraq has been difficult, the insurgency seems to be finally abating, with Sunnis now opposing Al Queda, and with democratic Kurds, Shia and Sunni facing off against theocratic Shia, hence the birth of true democratic political parties and constituencies. The Turks may do some spanking in Northern Iraq, justifiably so, the PKK is a terrorist organization, and spanking them would be a good thing. In Pakistan, things are finally starting to turn, with democratic Ms Bhutto entering Pakistan, forming an alliance with, of all things, strong man Musharrif, both now opposing extremists. Hello!! Did you get that, strong man Musharrif is bringing in the democrats!!! (He really has no choice, to solve his problem.) This is a very good thing. An injection of a democratic leader into Pakistan should be regarded as a long term positive, trying to civilize that disjointed and conflicted country. Burma and Nepal are in revolt, the democrats there want political power. China is now teaching North Korea, free market operation, WOW!, bringing another GAP nation into the fold of CORE cooperative nations, as nuke are being dismantled. Things are actually moving in the right direction, if you can see it all through the latest car bomb smoke.

So, there are two views, the other is that the glass is way more than half full. Maybe Mr. Grandich would like to go back in time, with his picnic basket, away from these very troubling modern days, and go back to Hitler's Germany, Armenian Genocide, Imperial Japan, Stalin's Soviet Union, Yugoslavia Genocide, you know, the good old days, where multi-million man international armies roamed over continents laying waste to swaths of lands murdering MILLIONS, except lets make sure they all have tactical nuke weapons, just to make sure gold goes sky high, supportive of your favorite share picks. But not to worry, gold will hit $35K/oz when all fiat is outlawed in about 2035 as the world becomes a real money economy, once again. Not to worry, again, your mine shares will do just fine.

Surely there are many hot spots that can be identified, but these, save a potential blockade of Iran (having some UN IAEA legitimacy, and hence would not be totally unilateral, especially when emboldened with a little French wine), are all intra-territorial disputes. Today, there is no pair of UN recognized nations with front line troops battling it out just now, hence, we now, this day, have a world without international WARS. Hello? Did anyone get that? As to intra-territorial disputes or insurgencies, there are many, mostly in the middle east, some in Africa, and some in Indonesia. The degree of insurgency, from armed uniformed insurgent armies, to mass murdering of civilians, to infrastructure terrorizing bombings, to debilitating national strikes, to disorderly rock-throwing protests, to civil demonstrations, and finally to the ballet box, is a civil disorder quantization along an insurgency continuum. As to this continuum, the operating point of a society within a territory is inversely related to the number of years that that society has had a functioning democracy. The USA, the longest living democracy, nearing flew apart in a civil war 80 years after democracy took hold here. It takes many many generations to learn the "democracy" culture of civility, and children do throw temper tantrums occasionally. There is an inverse correlation between intra-territorial civil disorder and the length of time the democracy is in place, as this thing, called democracy, is a learned culture. This learned culture possesses the ability to spew your counter-mantra into another's face, at the drop of the hat, yet, at the end of the debate, shake hands, and submit to majority rule, without firing a shot, the civil thing, which is a very difficult thing to do in theocratic, totalitarian, monarchial, or strong-man cultures.

The direction on earth is a very good one, if you believe the glass is half full, and the direction continues to this day, as we transit from war and FRNs to trade and gold. Nations would rather have political cover, share the costs, through a global organization. Allied Wars, Coalitions, NATO, and allied grouped militaries, (all being indications of the global confluence continued strength), are all precursor to UN peace keepers, as cops on the street, limited to intra-national insurgencies and civil disorder. Currently, the collapse of the FRN is merely a means to reduce foreigner's forex reserves so they pony up for their share in globalization by the US keeping trade lanes free, as a cost of doing business, and the US national debt will be reduced to zero, when gold finally replaces fiat globally in the far out years.

As to trade, the same affect occurs. As state controlled economies shift to free-market economies, ala China, more free trade agreements and packs are being had, as the trade wars heat up, with mutual multilateral trade agreements, just like the trend in multilateral international militaries used to perfect the global confluence of coalitions and UN peace keepers. Commercial free speech leads to political free speech, and all theocratic, monarchial, dictatorial, and totalitarian regimes will continue to have trouble, ultimately failing, because all do not provide a means of free political expression, and they will continue to give rise to new democracies, that will experience initial growing pains, as civil disorder, as the democratic culture is learned and becomes dominate eliminating wars and fiat in the out years.

In the out years, no longer will national militaries strike unilaterally, as the world becomes even more interconnected through the globalization confluence. Unfair competition will be ruled out concurrently by the global traders seeking fair competition, and that means gold will be the medium of exchange in the global confluence and economies. Before our every eyes, Mr. Grandich, war and fiat are being replaced by trade and gold, as the respective preferred tool and medium of global survival of the fittest, due to the inevitable march of political civility of cultural evolution through global confluent democratization and globalized free trade.

Sure, there are many insurgencies about the globe, but one needs to take a step back and look at the big picture. These insurgencies are merely the expected dust raised by the foot prints of "Walking Liberty", first recognized by President Lincoln, in the last paragraph of his 12/1/1862 address to congress, where he stated that our nation must not fail "as the last best hope OF earth", placing our civil war effort above merely preserving the union or freeing slaves, but that, democracy must not fail, as he was the first to recognize democracy as a global solution and hope to cement permanent peace in all conflicted peoples, "if followed". President Bush herald in "democracy century" effectively putting that 1862 recognition into the modern context, as a done deal, at this point in time, where democracies are catching hold and where there are no international wars. Walking Liberty sure has made the rounds, about the globe, starting in 1862, or perhaps even to Jefferson's barbary pirates. Surely, the trip has been a long one, taking 145 years, and is nearly done, and it has been very painful for mankind. But, in the middle of this 21st century, the cries by all may just be "Free at Last, Free at Last, Praise God Almighty, ALL OF MANKIND is Free at Last". The insurgencies to which Mr. Grandich complains are natural infantile attempts at democracy, along the disorder-insurgency continuum, though not stated as such, addressing opposing views in the only way they really know how, but that will all die a natural death as the culture of democracy is learned by all in the foot prints of "Walking Liberty", enroute to replacing war and the FRN dollar with trade wars and the gold global medium of exchange. When fully back home, when Mr. Lincoln's greenbacks are finally burned, wars will be replaced by trade wars, as the proper place of Walking Liberty is Real Money.  

Derrick